By Jeffrey A. Newman

The Northwest Passage is a series of maritime routes passing through Canada’s Archipelago. In recent years, due to the impact of climate change on sea ice, transiting the Northwest Passage from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic is much more feasible. Russia and China do not recognize Canada’s position that the passage is within its sovereign control. Both Russia and China assert that international law gives them freedom of navigation as they seek access to operate “Polar Silk Road” across the Arctic.

Chinese-owned civilian vessels, including container ships and research platforms, have increased their presence in Arctic waters. Some of these Chinese ships, as well as Russian ships, have transited the Northern Sea Route (which skirts Russia’s northern coast but connects with the Canadian Arctic region), and some Chinese ships have had express transit permissions and Russian military escorts in various Arctic passages. Chinese and Russian civilian ships transiting the Arctic are reportedly capable of dual-use operations—ostensibly for commerce or research, but equipped to conduct intelligence gathering, seabed mapping, and monitoring of undersea infrastructure. These “shadow fleet” vessels can support state interests by collecting data that could facilitate future navigational and military activities in the Northwest Passage area.

China’s coastguard entered the Arctic for the first time in October, in a joint patrol with Russian forces. The two countries had staged joint military exercises there the month earlier. In July, long-range bombers from both countries provocatively patrolled the Arctic Ocean near Alaska in the United States.

US national security agencies have stated that unregulated access by Russia and China through the Northwest Passage would endanger North American security, meaning endangering Canada and the U.S. Foreign military vessels and aircraft will likely use the passage increasing the probability of conflict.

Russia has substantially increased its Arctic military footprint with new bases and monitoring stations along its Arctic coast. Some are purposefully placed near the approaches to the Northwest Passage. While there is no public documentation of established Russian or Chinese military installations on Canadian territory, their presence and planned exercises enable power projection near the waterway. Over the past decade, Russia has modernized its Arctic military bases, deployed defense missiles, and upgraded its submarine fleet while developing fisheries, petroleum, and mineral extraction. Russia has focused money and resources towards the development of the Arctic to attract traffic to the Northern Sea Route, creating new ports, customs facilities, and marine checkpoints along the Arctic Coast. Russia’s development plan for 2035 includes $19 billion in infrastructure investment. In April 2021, Russia filed a submission to the UN seeking to extend its claims right up to the borders of Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Some national security experts suggest that if Canada just leaves the Passage as an international strait this will invite ambiguity and encourage encroachment by larger powers such as China and Russia.

If Canada and the United States could agree on conditions under which the U.S. could use the passage for delivery of goods, this would offer a route between east and west coast that is 7,000 kilometers shorter than using the Panama Canal,  and for key global routes, for example to Europe, the distance would be cut by more than 6,000 miles compared to southern routes via the Suez or Panama Canals. Estimates show that the Arctic route could be 30% cheaper than the Panama Canal for ocean routes because of the absence of canal tolls for commercial transit. In addition, as the Passage is a natural waterway, the restrictions on ship dimensions, a major problem now for beam, drafty and length, would be far less severe thereby increasing the economic volume of shipments.

For Canada, construction of ports and licensing their use would mean substantial income and if the United States adopted a clear position supporting the sovereign rights of ownership and agreed to help Canada protect those rights, Canada would have control and as such would see substantial economic gains in short order.

Comment by the author: obviously, existing trade discussions between the U.S. and Canada do not suggest an impending reinstatement of the previously friendly relationship between Canada and the U.S. Yet given the pace of change that could happen quickly. But, time is short. Climate change is making the Northwest Passage increasingly attractive to adversaries, including those who would disregard international borders.  This means that Canada is vulnerable and needs our military protection. f=For national security reasons, helping Canada protect the Passage would help us protect our counry from an attack from that area. Both nations-the U.S. and Canada need each other and would gain economically and militarily by acting as neighbors once more.

Jeffrey Newman is a whistleblower lawyer. His website is  www.JeffNewmanLaw.com and
he can be reached at Jeff@Jeffnewmanlaw.com or at 617.823.3217